Ohio State enters the 2026 college football season as ESPN’s analytical team to beat.
According to ESPN’s newly released preseason metrics, the Buckeyes have secured the No. 1 spot in both the College Football Power Index (FPI) and Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings.
In the FPI, Ohio State holds a 28.7 rating with a projected record of 10.2-2.4. Behind Ohio State in the top five are No. 2 Texas (26.9), No. 3 Notre Dame (25.9), No. 4 Oregon (25.3), and No. 5 Georgia (24.8). Rounding out the rest of the FPI top tier are No. 6 Indiana (23.1), No. 7 Miami (21.8) and No. 8 Alabama (20.1), followed by a three-way tie at 20.0 between No. 9 LSU, No. 10 Texas Tech, and No. 11 Texas A&M.
The SP+ rankings tell a slightly different story, though Ohio State remains firmly at the top with a 31.8 rating. The Buckeyes’ pole position is fueled by the nation’s No. 1 defensive SP+ (8.8) and the No. 2 offensive SP+ (40.6), trailing only Oregon in offensive efficiency.
After Ohio State, the SP+ top ten reshuffles with No. 2 Oregon (28.3), No. 3 Notre Dame (25.8), No. 4 Georgia (25.5), and No. 5 Indiana (24.5), No. 6 Texas (23.7), No. 7 Texas Tech (23.1), No. 8 Miami (21.0), No. 9 Texas A&M (20.3), and No. 10 LSU (20.2).
Ohio State (No. 2 offensive SP+, No. 1 defensive SP+), Oregon (No. 1, No. 3) and Georgia (No. 5, No. 5) were the only three teams to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive SP+.
Regardless of whether one looks at ESPN’S FPI or Connelly’s SP+ rankings, Ohio State will play three of the top six teams nationally. The Buckeyes will also face Illinois (No. 39 FPI, No. 33 SP+), Iowa (No. 25, No. 22), USC (No. 13, No. 13), Nebraska (No. 30, No. 37) and Michigan (No. 15, No. 14), all of whom rank in the top 40 in both metrics.
ESPN’s FPI measures a college football team’s strength relative to an average team, while Connelly’s SP+ rankings are a predictive efficiency metric that is calculated using a weighted formula based on four factors: returning production, recent program history, recent recruiting, and coaching change effects.
